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Options traders aim for $100K Bitcoin by the end of 2021, is there a chance?

比特币 (BTC) investors are known for being bullish, and even during 50% corrections like the current one, most analysts remain optimistic. One reason for investorsendless optimism and belief in infinite upside could be BTC’s decreasing issuance and the 21 million coins fixed supply limit.

然而, not even the most accurate models, 包括 存量与流量 (S2F) from analyst Plan B, can predict bear markets, crashes, or FOMO-induced (fear of missing out) pumps. Traders usually misinterpret these concepts as value and price expectations can be easily mistaken.

Bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum, even if BTC maximalists think so. 因此, its price action heavily depends on how many dollars, euros, and yuans are in circulation and interest rates, 房地产, equities, 和商品. Even global economic growth and inflationary expectations impact the risk appetite for people, 公司, and mutual funds.

Bitcoin’s current price drivers

Regardless of what these valuation models predict, price is exclusively composed by the market participants at any given moment. Opposite to what one might expect, data from CryptoQuant shows only 2.5 million Bitcoin currently deposited on exchanges. Compare this to the 10.7 million that hasn’t been moved in the last 12 months according to ‘HODL wave’ 数据, and we can say that long-term holders have no say in the price.

As the difference between value (subjective) and price (historical and objective) becomes more evident, it is easier to understand why some investors expect $100,000 or higher targets for the end of 2021. 然而, to correctly interpret what odds are being placed for those prices, one needs to analyze the calls (购买) existing in the options markets.

Bitcoin aggregate call options for Dec. 31. 资源: Bybt

Although the call (购买) options vastly dominate compared to the protective puts, this is common for almost every asset class on longer-term expiries. 然而, a call option with a $50,000 strike should be more representative than a $200,000 one because their prices will be noticeably different.

Bitcoin Dec. 31 call options market snapshot. 资源: Deribit

在撰写本文时, a right to acquire (call option) Bitcoin for $50,000 12月. 31 is valued at $4,350. 与此同时, the same instrument using a $200,000 strike price costs $415, which is roughly ten times lower.

Cointelegraph previously explained how $100,000 至 $300,000 strikes should not be taken as precise analysis-backed price estimates. Investors typically sell higher-strike calls while simultaneously buying the more costly call option with a lower strike.

简而言之, assuming that investors are exclusively buying the ultra-bullish call options is naive and usually wrong. 然而, even the option strategies involving selling those options are generally neutral-to-bullish.

$100,000 is still in play according to options markets

According to the Black & Scholes model, the current $1,185 price for the $100,000 call option has a 13% mathematical probability. It is worth noting that this methodology considers the price exclusively on Dec. 31 在 8:00 am ET and does not count the $99,999 price as a success.

尽管如此, there is strong evidence that professional traders are still valuing the year-end $100,000 options. It might seem far-fetched right now, but Bitcoin’s volatility opens room for surprise, especially considering that there’s still half a year ahead.

这里表达的观点和意见仅是 作者 并且不一定反映Cointelegraph的意见. 每一个投资和交易举动有风险. 在作出决定时应该进行自己的研究.

文章Cointelegraph

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